WTI and Brent Eye Fourth Consecutive Day of Losses

WTI PRICE, CHARTS AND ANALYSIS:

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WTI FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK

Crude Oil faced renewed selling pressure this morning in what has been a difficult week for the commodity. This followed a positive start to the week as WTI by broke above the 100-day MA for the first time since November 7, WTI has been on a steady decline eyeing its fourth consecutive day of losses.

Obviously, the key talking point this week has been the rise in rate hike expectations and inflationary fears which have affected a host of risk assets while the strengthening dollar has not helped matters. However, yesterday saw a slight reprieve for risk assets as well as a decline in the dollar yet oil prices continued its downward trajectory. So, what other factors could be the cause for the continued pressure Oil prices have faced this week?

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Data from China this week might be partly to blame as CPI and PPI reflected a sluggish economy particularly regarding consumer spending which has struggled. Of course, the data was reflective of the January and February period with parts of China still locked down in the early part of January so the next data release may be more accurate. We saw a similar fall in Chinese imports which unexpectedly entered deeper contractionary territory which seem to have had an impact on the optimism around a demand recovery moving forward. I do think we will see a recovery, but I do not think it will be as swift as many market participants predicted with the rising rates and inflationary environment likely to mean a more gradual recovery for China in 2023.

The Energy and Information Administration (EIA) data meanwhile finally broke a 10-week streak of increasing inventories. The data showed inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels to 478.5 million barrels in the week ending March 3 and yet failed to arrest the slide in WTI prices.

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BRENT CRUDE UPDATE

Bent Prices have been on the exact same trajectory this week as WTI as it approaches the $80 a barrel psychological level. Facing the same challenges, the $80 a barrel hurdle will remain key if we are to see further downside with a daily candle close below opening up potential support tests of the $79.00 and $77.70 levels respectively.

Later today we have the all-important NFP report out of the US as well as average earnings which could add further strength to the USD and push all Oil prices lower.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the DailyFX Calendar

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

From a technical perspective, WTI finally broke above the 100-day MA on Monday which was the first time since November 7. The anticipated follow through however hasn’t occurred as we have seen three consecutive days of losses breaking below the 50-day MA as well with today’s open looking like a fourth day of losses may be on the cards. Price is close to a key swing point providing support around the $73.80 handle which keeps WTI on a bullish trajectory at present. Without a daily candle close below the $73.80 handle we could see a bounce and head back toward recent highs as the bullish trend of late remains valid.

Alternatively, a break below the support handle at $73.80 could open up a retest of the February 23 low around $72.30 a barrel and the 2022 low at the $70 mark.

WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart – March 10, 2023