- February 2023 US employment data from the non-farm payrolls report
- Prior was +517K (revised to 504K)
- Two-month net revision -34K
- Unemployment rate 3.6% vs 3.4% expected
- Prior unemployment rate 3.4% *
- Participation rate % vs 62.4% prior (was 63.4% pre-pandemic)
- U6 underemployment rate % vs 6.6% prior
- Average hourly earnings +0.2% m/m vs +0.3% expected (prior +0.3%)
- Average hourly earnings +4.6% y/y vs +4.7% expected (prior +4.4%)
- Average weekly hours 34.5 vs 34.6 expected
- Change in private payrolls 265K vs +210K expected
- Change in manufacturing payrolls -4K vs +12K expected
- Household survey +177K
- Birth-death adjustment added 176K jobs
This is a big one with the market pricing in a 50/50 chance of a larger FOMC hike ahead of the report and 64% of 25 bps afterwards. The headline is stronger here but the unemployment rate rose and wage growth was below expectations and slowed. Hours worked were also softer so that points to part-time jobs.
Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, government, and health care. Employment declined in information and in transportation and warehousing.
