- “We expect the BoC to act “more forcefully” and hike the policy rate by 75bp this week to 2.25%. Beyond this week, we expect another 75bp hike in September, 50bp hikes in October and December, and a 4.25% terminal rate reached in Q1. The main drivers of our hawkish BoC call are that we expect headline CPI inflation to remain above 7% this year and for the BoC to respond aggressively to any signs of entrenched inflation,” GS notes.
- “Risks to our hawkish terminal rate forecast are to the downside. A more significant US growth slowdown or a crash in the housing market would likely mean that the BoC hikes less in December and January than we expect” GS adds.
Coming up at 1400 GMT: