Prior was 52.0
Firms recorded a renewed decline in new orders amid greater client hesitancy
Easing supply chain disruption led to the first decrease in backlogs of work since July 2020
Subdued demand conditions were linked by panellists to greater client hesitancy amid marked inflation.
New export orders fell sharply as dollar strength and challenging economic conditions across key export markets dampened foreign demand
Rates of input price and output charge inflation
Inflation
Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market.
Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market.
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Survey are some of the best forward-looking indicators and you can see signs of a slowdown all over this report.
Siân Jones, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:
“October PMI data signalled a subdued start to the final quarter of 2022, as US manufacturers recorded a renewed and solid drop in new orders. Domestic and foreign demand weakened due to greater hesitancy among clients as prices rose further and amid dollar strength. As such, efforts to clear backlogs of work, rather than new order inflows, drove the latest upturn in production.
“Confidence in the outlook waned as underlying data also highlighted efforts to cut costs and adjust to more subdued demand conditions in the coming months. Input buying fell sharply and resilience in employment stumbled, as the pace of job creation eased to only a marginal rate.
“On a more positive note, input costs rose at the slowest pace in almost two years amid signs of reduced disruption in supply chains. Lower demand for inputs was a contributing factor to this, however. Nevertheless, softer hikes in costs were reflected in a slower uptick in output charges, as firms sought to pass on cost savings where possible to try and boost sales.”
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